Tennis data visualisation and analysis by Matthew Willis: serve and return patterns, shot placement and rally data from the ATP tour, with short essays on what the numbers mean.https://serveplusone.co/en-GBhttps://serveplusone.co/posts/de-minaurs-forehand-mostly-goes-one-way/https://serveplusone.co/posts/de-minaurs-forehand-mostly-goes-one-way/This was arguably the most influential point of the match, a break point De Minaur created and dominated until the last shot in set 1.Tue, 06 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/1-de-minaur.Dzgr5JzQ_Z8ljp2.jpg" alt="Court diagrams of rally forehands hit from the middle or backhand side against right-handers in 2025–26. The top 30 average splits 49% to the deuce side and 51% inside-out to the ad side; De Minaur sends 30% to the deuce side and 70% inside-out to the ad side." /></p><p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/3-inside-out-top-16.-ftETZdp_Z2poMrh.jpg" alt="Sixteen small court diagrams for the ATP top 16, sorted by the share of these forehands hit inside-out: De Minaur 70%, Mensik 69%, Zverev 60% and Sinner 55% at the top, down to Fritz at 42% and Jodar at 41%." /></p><p>This was arguably the most influential point of the match, a break point De Minaur created and dominated until the last shot in set 1.</p>DjokovicForehandShot directionBreak pointsde Minaurhttps://serveplusone.co/posts/anatomy-of-a-forehand/https://serveplusone.co/posts/anatomy-of-a-forehand/Things like spin rates and groundstroke speed often get shown on broadcast but they're pretty incomplete in isolation.Wed, 23 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/1-chart.DyOcUBRL_D7rx4.jpg" alt="Table of the average rally forehand for each of the ATP top 10, from contact to bounce: contact distance behind the baseline, ball speed, spin, net clearance and depth. Sinner hits it fastest (82 mph, 3,177 rpm); Medvedev makes contact furthest back (1.30m), hits slowest but one (75 mph) with less spin (2,453 rpm), yet clears the net by the most (76cm) and still lands it 3.67m from the baseline." /></p><p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/2-top-20.CgCPoQad_uzjfY.jpg" alt="The same table for the ATP top 20, sorted by ball speed. Fils hits the fastest forehand (84 mph, 3,283 rpm) and de Minaur the slowest (74 mph) with the least spin (2,210 rpm), though he makes contact closest to the baseline (0.70m) and lands it deepest (3.54m short of the baseline). Darderi makes contact furthest back (1.44m), Mensik clears the net by the least (64cm), and Ruud and Djokovic by the most (79cm)." /></p><p>Things like spin rates and groundstroke speed often get shown on broadcast but they're pretty incomplete in isolation.</p>ForehandMedvedevSpin and speedhttps://serveplusone.co/posts/who-wins-the-rallies/https://serveplusone.co/posts/who-wins-the-rallies/Top 20 (+ Fonseca) win rate by rally lengthTue, 08 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.Babbp9QK_Z2hkT9R.jpg" alt="Table of points won in short (0–4 shots), medium (5–8) and long (9+) rallies for the ATP top 20 plus Fonseca. Sinner wins the most short rallies (57.7%) and, with Fils, the most long ones (56.4%); Alcaraz is best in 5–8 shot rallies (56.5%); Shelton, Mensik and Lehecka win under 47% of rallies of nine shots or more." /></p><p>Top 20 (+ Fonseca) win rate by rally length</p>Rally lengthFonsecahttps://serveplusone.co/posts/rafa-jodars-first-serve-return/https://serveplusone.co/posts/rafa-jodars-first-serve-return/Jódar’s return is finally getting more attention but it’s worth looking at why.Wed, 12 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.BItJUXL-_1zFRzU.jpg" alt="Court map of where Jódar's first-serve returns landed in 2026. 32% land deep (tour 26%, top 20 29%) and he wins 62% of those points (tour 53%). 63% of his returns go in (tour 65%), at an average of 70 mph against 63 mph for the tour and 65 mph for the top 20." /></p><p>Jódar’s return is finally getting more attention but it’s worth looking at why.</p>First serveReturnJodarhttps://serveplusone.co/posts/fresh-out-the-can/https://serveplusone.co/posts/fresh-out-the-can/This is so interesting because there's a measurable impact from newer/older balls on rates of aces, holds, unreturned, double faults, 1st serve in %, rally length et al.Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.DFDstJHZ_15Jff.jpg" alt="Grid of the share of first serves in play that go unreturned, by how many games each set of balls has been used, on men's tour-level hard courts in 2022–26. Fresh balls average 43% unreturned and worn balls 34%, dropping from 42–44% with new balls to the mid 30s after five or more games." /></p><p>This is so interesting because there's a measurable impact from newer/older balls on rates of aces, holds, unreturned, double faults, 1st serve in %, rally length et al.</p>Balls and equipmentServe dominanceFirst servehttps://serveplusone.co/posts/the-backhand-consistency-gap/https://serveplusone.co/posts/the-backhand-consistency-gap/A huge consistency gap downstream of backhand techniqueWed, 08 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.f23JKwFv_1vSKUz.jpg" alt="Distribution of where Auger-Aliassime's and Djokovic's rally backhands land, from the net to beyond the baseline. Both make contact about 0.7m behind the baseline, but Auger-Aliassime's heavier, higher backhand (2,368 rpm, 0.83m over the net) lands at a median 7.9m against Djokovic's 8.4m, and he misses more into the net (6.3% against 4.6%) and long (6.6% against 4.4%)." /></p><p>A huge consistency gap downstream of backhand technique</p>DjokovicAuger-AliassimeBackhandSpin and speedhttps://serveplusone.co/posts/serve-plus-one-wing-split/https://serveplusone.co/posts/serve-plus-one-wing-split/How often do the Top 20 find their forehand on serve +1 (the shot after the serve) and how much of a cost is there to them hitting backhands instead.Fri, 26 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.CBhp2f6p_1hbGYS.jpg" alt="Chart of how often each of the ATP top 20 plus prospects plays a forehand, backhand or volley as their first shot after a first serve, and how often they win the point with each. On average 68% are forehands; Darderi hits the most (81%), Zverev and Medvedev the fewest (52%). Auger-Aliassime's forehand edge is the largest at 15 points (62% against 47%), Medvedev's the smallest at 2." /></p><p>How often do the Top 20 find their forehand on serve +1 (the shot after the serve) and how much of a cost is there to them hitting backhands instead.</p>ZverevMedvedevServe +1Forehand vs backhandProspectshttps://serveplusone.co/posts/first-serve-returns-in-vs-won/https://serveplusone.co/posts/first-serve-returns-in-vs-won/1st serve returns in play vs 1st serve return win rate 2025-2026. Top 20 + Jodar, Fils, FonsecaWed, 24 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.CvOd94l3_bL2Db.jpg" alt="Scatter plot of first-serve returns in play against first-serve return points won for the ATP top 20 plus Jodar, Fils and Fonseca. Sinner and Alcaraz win 35% while getting 68–69% back in play; Jodar also wins 35% from 64% in; Shelton is lowest at 24% won from 61% in. Tour averages are 65% in and 28% won." /></p><p>1st serve returns in play vs 1st serve return win rate 2025-2026. Top 20 + Jodar, Fils, Fonseca</p>First serveReturnFonsecaJodarFilshttps://serveplusone.co/posts/on-clay-softer-hands-pay/https://serveplusone.co/posts/on-clay-softer-hands-pay/Every Top 20 player hits more drop shots on clay than hard courts except Vacherot.Sat, 09 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.DlXyJ29Q_Z2amh1V.jpg" alt="Chart of the share of shots that are drop shots on hard courts and on clay for the ATP top 20 plus Jodar, Tien and Fonseca. Bublik uses them most (5.8% on hard, 8.5% on clay) and every player hits more on clay except Vacherot. Sinner wins 60% of drop-shot points on hard and 66% on clay; Alcaraz 59% and 60%." /></p><p>Every Top 20 player hits more drop shots on clay than hard courts except Vacherot.</p>SinnerAlcarazDrop shotsSurface comparisonVacherothttps://serveplusone.co/posts/out-wide-out-wider/https://serveplusone.co/posts/out-wide-out-wider/Lefty servers really do seem to have a special something on slice wide serves.Wed, 29 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.CjSDYIKj_ZykGTG.jpg" alt="Court diagram of where top-10 players make return contact on wide first serves in 2025–26, split by service box and by the server's hand. On the ad side they make contact 2.63m outside the singles line against left-handers and 1.60m against right-handers; on the deuce side it is 1.34m against left-handers and 2.30m against right-handers." /></p><p>Lefty servers really do seem to have a special something on slice wide serves.</p>Serve placementReturn positionForehand vs backhandLeftieshttps://serveplusone.co/posts/the-sinner-and-alcaraz-tax/https://serveplusone.co/posts/the-sinner-and-alcaraz-tax/Sinner and Alcaraz tax the top 20 the way they tax everyone else. And nobody can tax them back.Wed, 22 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/1-first-serve-tax.icCeXDhF_Z29JHo1.jpg" alt="Two flow charts of first-serve points for top-20 servers in 2025–26: against each other (72.4% won) and against Sinner or Alcaraz (64.8% won). Against the pair, fewer first serves go unreturned (32% against 38%), and the server's +1 shot wins less often on both the forehand (6.5 points lower) and the backhand (8.4 points lower)." /></p><p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/2-rankings.j0llATa7_Z2kjcwG.jpg" alt="Bar chart of ATP ranking points for the top 20 on 22 April 2026. Sinner has 13,350 and Alcaraz 12,960; Zverev is third with 5,255, and ranks 3 to 8 combined hold 25,850 points, fewer than Sinner and Alcaraz's 26,310." /></p><p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/3-second-serve-tax.Bi53MEed_Z1qlDJa.jpg" alt="Two flow charts of second-serve points for top-20 servers: against each other they win 51.5%, against Sinner or Alcaraz 46.1%. Against the pair, backhand +1s rise to 51% of returned second serves and win only 40% of the time, and forehand +1s win 45%." /></p><p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/4-first-serve-return.i0V0G8-P_Z1yIHBw.jpg" alt="Scatter plot of top-20 players' first-serve return: returns in (56 to 70%) against return points won (24 to 36%). Sinner and Alcaraz sit top right at about 35% won and 67 to 69% in, ahead of Cerundolo and Medvedev; Shelton is lowest at 24%." /></p><p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/5-top-20-vs-21-100.CrAyE1En_EMzDW.jpg" alt="Two flow charts of Sinner and Alcaraz's first-serve points against players ranked 21–100 (75.5% won) and against the rest of the top 20 (76.6% won). Against the top 20, their unreturned rate is unchanged at 38% and their backhand +1 win rate is 9.4 points higher." /></p><p>Sinner and Alcaraz tax the top 20 the way they tax everyone else. And nobody can tax them back.</p>Forehand vs backhandRankingsServe +1SinnerAlcarazhttps://serveplusone.co/posts/alcaraz-rally-contact/https://serveplusone.co/posts/alcaraz-rally-contact/It was so much harder for Alcaraz to play forehands out of his backhand corner (usually a major weapon) in the Monte Carlo final vs Sinner.Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.DaPsKRX2_18hK70.jpg" alt="Clay court maps of where Alcaraz made rally contact at Monte Carlo 2026. Before the final, 60% of his contacts were forehands (416 forehands, 268 backhands); in the final against Sinner, 46% (116 forehands, 134 backhands), with backhand contacts clustered on his left behind the baseline." /></p><p>It was so much harder for Alcaraz to play forehands out of his backhand corner (usually a major weapon) in the Monte Carlo final vs Sinner.</p>Court positionForehand vs backhandMonte CarloSinnerAlcarazhttps://serveplusone.co/posts/return-contact-point/https://serveplusone.co/posts/return-contact-point/A nice way to look at differences in hard and clay court strategy is return positions.Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.nXrmKIry_ZJ9siw.jpg" alt="Court maps of where Sinner and Alcaraz make contact when returning first serves, split by hard court and clay and coloured by point won, lost, return winner or error. Sinner averages 1.63m behind the baseline on hard and 2.78m on clay; Alcaraz averages 1.96m on hard and 3.22m on clay, with a second, deeper cluster around 5m on clay." /></p><p>A nice way to look at differences in hard and clay court strategy is return positions.</p>Return positionSurface comparisonhttps://serveplusone.co/posts/so-much-for-the-serve-era/https://serveplusone.co/posts/so-much-for-the-serve-era/Casper Ruud holds serve more often than Sampras did on hard courts in 1994 & Davidovich Fokina holds serve more often than Ivanišević.Fri, 27 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.GHeelsjU_Qirw4.jpg" alt="Dot plots of hard-court hold percentages for top-50 ATP players in 1994 and 2025/26. In 1994, 44% held at least 80% of their service games, with Sampras around 87% and Ivanišević about 84%; in 2025/26, 84% do, led by Sinner at about 92.5%, with Ruud near 87.5% and Davidovich Fokina near 84%." /></p><p>Casper Ruud holds serve more often than Sampras did on hard courts in 1994 & Davidovich Fokina holds serve more often than Ivanišević.</p>Serve dominanceHistoryRuudDavidovich FokinaSamprasIvaniševićhttps://serveplusone.co/posts/alcaraz-has-a-serve-problem/https://serveplusone.co/posts/alcaraz-has-a-serve-problem/Possibly a crazy thing to be writing about the current world No.1 and recent Australian Open champion. But margins are fine in tennis and his biggest rival has some hard court gifts that can make even small problems loom large.Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/1-alcaraz-break-points.D6pe0elk_a8m14.jpg" alt="Two court diagrams of Alcaraz's ad-side first serves on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. On all points (n=667) he goes 41% wide, 15% body and 44% T, winning 72 to 74% out wide and down the T. On break points (n=56) 71% go wide or body (48% wide, 23% body, 29% T) and he wins only 59% of the wide serves." /></p><p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/2-sinner-break-points.CtHvIIMp_2mNGtY.jpg" alt="The same diagrams for Sinner. On all ad-side points (n=635) he goes 52% wide, 4% body and 44% T, winning 83% and 81%. On break points (n=45) the split barely changes (56% wide, 4% body, 40% T) and he wins 72% wide and 89% down the T." /></p><p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.2ZBMdAhN_Z1tFeaH.png" alt="Scatter plot of the ATP top 20 by average first-serve speed against first-serve accuracy, coloured by height. Shorter players such as De Minaur, Alcaraz, Musetti and Ruud sit in the fast-but-less-accurate region; Djokovic is the most accurate at about 50cm at 119 mph." /></p><p>Possibly a crazy thing to be writing about the current world No.1 and recent Australian Open champion. But margins are fine in tennis and his biggest rival has some hard court gifts that can make even small problems loom large.</p>First serveSinnerDjokovicCourt speedServe +1Serve speedServe placementBreak pointsSurface comparisonIndian WellsAlcarazhttps://serveplusone.co/posts/sine-of-a-great-serve/https://serveplusone.co/posts/sine-of-a-great-serve/It's fairly obvious that taller players have an easier time hitting accurate serves (closer to the centre or side line), but I wasn't expecting quite such a stark grouping difference.Tue, 03 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.2ZBMdAhN_Z1tFeaH.png" alt="Scatter plot of the ATP top 20 by average first-serve speed (114 to 130 mph) against first-serve accuracy, measured as average landing distance from the side or centre line (lower is more precise), coloured by player height. Zverev and Mensik serve fastest at 128 mph, Djokovic is the most accurate at about 50cm at the tour-average 119 mph, and Fritz and Mensik combine pace with accuracy of around 51 to 52cm." /></p><p>It's fairly obvious that taller players have an easier time hitting accurate serves (closer to the centre or side line), but I wasn't expecting quite such a stark grouping difference.</p>Serve speedServe placementhttps://serveplusone.co/posts/the-block-return/https://serveplusone.co/posts/the-block-return/The block return is pretty rare at the top of the men's game these days.Sun, 22 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.Bu7Q9MQk_1EW9gN.jpg" alt="Bar chart of the share of returns hit with topspin rather than slice or block for the ATP top 20, sorted by topspin share; the tour average is 84% topspin. Sinner hits 95% topspin; Bublik slices or blocks the most at 32%, followed by Musetti at 29% and Ruud at 22%." /></p><p>The block return is pretty rare at the top of the men's game these days.</p>BublikServe +1Returnhttps://serveplusone.co/posts/medvedev-the-backhand-outlier/https://serveplusone.co/posts/medvedev-the-backhand-outlier/Medvedev is the only player in the Top 20 who hits more backhands than forehandsWed, 18 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.YnSPf4T0_Z1x5SoN.jpg" alt="Bar chart of the forehand share of groundstrokes for the ATP top 20, against a top-20 average of 53.9%. Auger-Aliassime hits the most forehands (59.0%), and Medvedev is the only player below half, at 45.7%." /></p><p>Medvedev is the only player in the Top 20 who hits more backhands than forehands</p>Forehand vs backhandMedvedevhttps://serveplusone.co/posts/is-wimbledon-getting-slower/https://serveplusone.co/posts/is-wimbledon-getting-slower/People love to say Wimbledon keeps getting slower despite consistent grass length (8mm) since 1995, seed type (ryegrass) since 2001, ball pressure since 1995Thu, 05 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT<p><img src="https://serveplusone.co/_astro/chart.DFdmiO3f_1oSMil.jpg" alt="Line chart of average men's rally length at Wimbledon, in shots per point, alongside relative air density from 2004 to 2025. Rally length moves between about 3.4 and 3.95 shots with no long-term rise and tracks air density, with a correlation of 0.57 overall and 0.74 for year-to-year changes." /></p><p>People love to say Wimbledon keeps getting slower despite consistent grass length (8mm) since 1995, seed type (ryegrass) since 2001, ball pressure since 1995</p>Rally lengthCourt speedHistoryWimbledon