Serve speed

Two court diagrams of Alcaraz's ad-side first serves on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. On all points (n=667) he goes 41% wide, 15% body and 44% T, winning 72 to 74% out wide and down the T. On break points (n=56) 71% go wide or body (48% wide, 23% body, 29% T) and he wins only 59% of the wide serves.

Alcaraz has a serve problem

Possibly a crazy thing to be writing about the current world No.1 and recent Australian Open champion. But margins are fine in tennis and his biggest rival has some hard court gifts that can make even small problems loom large.

March 2026Essay, 4 min read3 charts

Scatter plot of the ATP top 20 by average first-serve speed (114 to 130 mph) against first-serve accuracy, measured as average landing distance from the side or centre line (lower is more precise), coloured by player height. Zverev and Mensik serve fastest at 128 mph, Djokovic is the most accurate at about 50cm at the tour-average 119 mph, and Fritz and Mensik combine pace with accuracy of around 51 to 52cm.

Sine of a Great Serve

It's fairly obvious that taller players have an easier time hitting accurate serves (closer to the centre or side line), but I wasn't expecting quite such a stark grouping difference.

March 2026